Volatile Weather Conditions over the Next 2 weeks - Classic Spring Variability
Pressure Anomaly for the First Week of October suggests a continuation of Unsettled Weather Conditions
Get ready for a classic springtime mix over the next few weeks! Weather patterns across the South Island are going to be a bit of a mixed bag, with plenty of variation from day to day and region to region. This is typical for the spring season as we transition from cooler to warmer weather.
The Main Weather Theme: Westerly Flows
The overarching theme for the next couple of weeks will be a series of westerly to southwesterly flows and low-pressure systems moving across the country. This means the West Coast can expect frequent showers and heavier rain at times, while the eastern regions will be a bit more sheltered, but still prone to a few showers and strong, gusty winds.
West Coast and Fiordland: Be prepared for a run of wet days. Rain will be a common feature, with some heavy falls possible, especially as new fronts move in from the Tasman Sea. This is great news for our hydro lakes and rainforests, but it means you'll want to keep your raincoat handy.
Canterbury, Otago, and Southland: You can expect a mix of cloud and sun, with a greater chance of showers as fronts pass over. Strong westerly winds will be a defining feature at times, and they'll feel a bit blustery at times. These winds will be strongest in exposed areas and can make it feel cooler than the air temperature suggests.
Northern South Island (Nelson & Marlborough): You can expect a more settled period, particularly compared to elsewhere, but strong winds and some precipitation are possible as new frontal systems pass through, heavier rain potential further West.
Temperatures and Snowfall ❄️
Temperatures are expected to be typical for this time of year, with some variation. The westerlies will bring warmer air from the north, but each passing cold front will deliver a blast of cooler air from the south. This means you could see a few days of mild weather followed by a noticeable drop in temperature.
While spring is well underway, there's still a chance for snow, especially on the high country roads and ski fields. The bursts of colder air behind each front could bring light snowfalls to elevations above 600-800 metres at times, so keep an eye on new weather updates if you're planning a trip over the passes.
Looking Ahead
Overall, the next two weeks will be characterized by classic spring variability. We'll be on the rollercoaster of changing weather, moving from cold and blustery in the south and southwest to mild and unsettled. Our advice? Don't get caught out. Even on a fine day, it's wise to carry an extra layer and be ready for a change. Stay tuned to our daily forecasts for the most accurate and up-to-date information for your local area.
